Gary Doran

Advanced Stats Report: Oregon Ducks


Oregon is the ninth games of the 2016 season for the Devils and the sixth conference game. It will also be the fourth road game of the year. The Ducks lead the series 18-16, however, ASU won the first nine games in the series, while Oregon has won the last nine. Below is a breakdown of the records by ASU coach:


Here are stats from the 2015 season: (2015 Record, Overall: 9-4 – Conference: 7-2)


Offense– Last season, Oregon led the conference in the number of rushing attempts, the total rushing yards gained,  the average yards per carry and number of rushing touchdowns
– Oregon has led the conference in total rushing yards for the past ten seasons
– In 2015, the Oregon running game averaged over two yards per carry more at home than on the road
– In the first half of their games last year, the Ducks averaged scoring a rushing touchdown once every 14.1  carries, while in the second the average jumped to once every 24.0 carries
– On fourth down last year, the Ducks averaged 5.33 yards per carry in 15 carries, with ten of them gaining  a first down and three scoring a touchdown
– The Duck have led the conference in scoring rushing touchdowns within their opponents’ red zones five  out of the past six years, yet only led the conference once in those years in the average yards per carry in  the red zone
– In 2015, the Oregon running game amassed 130 carries that gained ten yards or more, no other  conference team even reached 100
– Last year, only one team kept Oregon from scoring a rushing touchdown in a game
– In each quarter last season, the average yards per carry declined, (1st-6.44, 2nd-6.08, 3rd 5.78, 4th-5.52  and OT-4.24)
– When the Ducks were pinned back in their own end, from the one to the 20-yard line, the running game  averaged 8.33 yards per carry
– Last season, Oregon only scored three rushing touchdowns on third down
– Last year, Oregon threw the fourth fewest passes in the conference, but had the second highest yards per  pass attempt and the third most touchdown passes
– In the month of November last year, Oregon completed over 72-percent of its passes, with 15 touchdown  passes and three interceptions
– In 2015, Oregon completed 65.7-percent of its passes in the first three quarters, but only 52-percent in  the fourth quarter and overtime
– Four of Oregon’s ten interceptions last season happened when they were in their opponents’ red zones
– Oregon was seventh in the conference last year in the number of red zone touchdowns thrown, but led the  conference in the number of touchdown passes thrown in their opponents’ end of the field, but outside the  red zone, (19)
– Nine of the ten interceptions thrown last year by Oregon happened when they were either tied or behind  in the game, in 2014, only one interception was thrown then
– Last season 31-percent of Oregon’s pass attempts happened when they were trailing in the game, but only  21-percent of the touchdown passes
– Oregon threw 192 passes last year when they were ahead, and only one was intercepted
– Last year, Oregon faced 53 third down and short yardage situations and only passed the ball seven times  then
– Last season, Oregon completed 62.9-percent of its passes on third down and long, which was second in  the conference, and led the conference in yards per pass attempt, (12.2)
– Last year, Oregon was ninth in the conference in converting third downs, in 2014, they were first
– Last year, Oregon was fifth in the conference in the percentage of red zone touchdown passes thrown  compared to the red zone opportunities, however, the percentage was not much different than the  previous year, (64.3%-65.0%)
– Last year, Oregon was fourth in the conference in the number of turnovers, (17), while they led the  conference in 2014 with only eleven turnovers


Defense– Last year, Oregon was eighth in the conference in the average yards per carry allowed and the number of  rushing touchdowns they gave up
– Last season, the Ducks faced the fourth fewest running plays in the conference, while in the two previous  seasons, they faced the most running plays each year
– Last year, the Ducks gave up only five rushing touchdowns in the first half, but 19 in the second  half/overtime, along with almost a yard per carry increase
– On third down and short yardage last season, the Oregon defense gave up an average of 5.31 yards per  carry, where only one other conference team did worse; ASU, 5.38
– Oregon tied for eighth in the conference last year in the number of red zone rushing touchdowns they  surrendered
– The Oregon defense last year did not give up a third down rushing touchdown that covered more than  three yards
– One-third of all the rushing touchdowns given up by the Ducks last season happened in the final two  games of the year
– Last season against the Ducks, ASU averaged 6.25 yards per carry; only the Utah Utes had a higher  average in their game against Oregon at 6.50
– Only one of the nine conference teams the Ducks played last year failed to gain an average of at least 4.25  yards per carry in their game against the Oregon defense
– Last year, Oregon faced the most pass attempts in the conference, gave up the second most passing yards and tied ASU for giving up the most touchdown passes
– In home games last season, the Duck averaged giving up a touchdown pass once every 14.1 passes, while  it was one every 18.8 passes on the road
– In 2013, 46.0-percent of the plays the Oregon defense faced were pass plays, in 2014, the percentage  increased to 49.7 and last year it jumped to 53.1-percent
– In the first eight game of the season last year, the Ducks gave up a touchdown pass once every 13.4  passes, while they only gave up one every 24.3 passes in the last five games
– Last year, the Oregon defense gave up the most red zone touchdown passes in the conference, (27), which  was also more than Oregon had surrendered in over eight years
– Last year, Oregon only faced 13 pass attempts when they were trailing by more than seven points, but 254  attempts when they were ahead by one than seven points
– In 2013, the Oregon defense gave up the fewest passing first downs, then in 2014, they gave up the second  most, and in 2015, they gave up the most
– In 2013, the Oregon defense gave up the fewest pass completions gaining fifteen yards or more in the  conference, in 2104, they dropped to tenth and last year, they finished eleventh
– Last year, the Oregon defense gave up five touchdown passes in four different games, whereas the last  time they surrendered five touchdown passes in a game was November of 2008
– In 2015, the Oregon defense only gave up five touchdown passes in the first quarter
– Last year, Oregon was seventh in the conference in the percentage of third down conversions allowed
– Last year, Oregon was next to last in the conference in the percentage of red zone touchdowns the defense  allowed compared to their opponents’ red zone opportunities
– Last year, Oregon tied for eighth in the conference in get 22 takeaways, which was the lowest amount for  an Oregon team in over eight years


The Oregon running game is elite, and has been for many years. They usually run the ball more than anyone else, and can move it somewhat freely from just about anywhere on the field. They ran the ball twice as often as they passed it from their opponents’ red zones, and scored twice as many touchdowns on the ground as through the air in there. The only seeming downside seems to be a decline in the average yards per carry as the game goes along.

Last season Oregon did a decent job of replacing its Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota from 2014, as the team performed in the top quarter of the conference in many passing categories. There were differences in the statistical performance between the two years that usually showed up in critical situations, but overall Oregon seemed to be able to plug a new quarterback into their system without any major disruption. It looks like that they will need to do the same for 2016. Can the results be as favorable as this past season?

From a statistical standpoint, the Duck run defense is somewhat middle of the conference in most significant categories. They do seem to give up more on the ground in the second half of their games that didn’t seem to happen in previous years

Based on the stats, the pass defense appears to have taken a step backward over the past couple of years. Last year’s pass defense mirrored a lot of the same characteristics as the 2015 ASU pass defense, in giving up too many big plays and touchdowns. Opposing offensive coordinators also seem to feel that the pass defense wasn’t as stellar by the fact that they were calling a greater percentage of pass plays against the Duck defense in the recent past.

Maybe by the ninth game of the season, ASU’s first-year signal caller will be able to take advantage of the Oregon pass defense, however, that could also be said for the Ducks against the Devil pass defense. A win in Eugene could possibly happen if ASU can win the turnover battle in a big way. Keeping the Ducks from winning the tenth in a row against the Devils will be a big task.

Source: and

About Gary Doran

Gary Doran

Gary graduated from ASU many years ago. After careers working in banking, finance and the financial administration of academic research funding, he is now interested in utilizing his passion for numbers towards two things he thoroughly loves; Arizona State University and college football. He is looking forward to finding the “stories” buried within the numbers on a football stat sheet. He has gone to ASU football games all the way back to the days of Frank Kush and the WAC. He has been married to an amazing ASU graduate for almost forty years, and they currently live in Ventura, CA. Although this may disqualify him from talking football, he and his wife enjoy the practice of yoga and dancing the Argentine Tango. Ole!

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