With the surprise loss of local prep star Byron Murphy to the University of Washington and the angst that followed from the Sun Devil faithful, the ASU Devils Den decided to see where Arizona high school recruits have been signing during the Todd Graham era. Our compilation captured a total of 81 Arizona high school recruits that have signed with a Power Five conference teams (as well as with Boise State and BYU) during the 2012 through 2016 recruiting cycles (as of January 26).
Keep in mind that just because an Arizona high school recruit signed with a Power Five conference team doesn’t mean that recruit was pursued by either ASU or the U of A, however, the information does present some trends in Arizona high school recruiting over the past five years. Here’s what we found:
– Almost as many of the Arizona recruits signed with a Power Five team outside the Pac-12 conference as those that signed with either ASU or UofA
Arizona Recruits by City
– Almost half of all the recruits played ball in just two cities; Chandler or Scottsdale
– Over three-quarters of the ASU signees played ball in either Chandler, Scottsdale or Gilbert
– Only about one-third of all the Arizona recruits stayed in-state by signing with either ASU or UofA
– No recruit from a Phoenix high school stayed in-state by signing with either ASU or UofA
– No high school recruit from ASU’s hometown, Tempe signed with the Devils
– Almost half of the recruits from Scottsdale signed with a team outside the Pac-12 conference
– Recruits from Tucson either signed with the Wildcats or went outside the Pac-12 conference
– Over 40% of the Wildcat signees came from either Tucson or from a city that had only produced one Power Five conference signee in the five year period
Arizona Recruits by High School Team
– Almost one-third of all Power Five conference signees played for only three high schools; Chandler, Hamilton or Chaparral
– ASU and UofA combined signed less that 30-percent of the recruits from the top-ten producing high school programs, whereas they signed over 42-percent from the other 21 schools producing Power Five level recruits
– Only six Arizona high school programs averaged at least one Power Five conference signee per year
– Nearly two-thirds of the Wildcat signees came from Arizona high school programs that produced three or fewer recruits over the five-years analyzed
– Every Chandler High School recruit has signed with a Pac-12 team compared to only half of the Hamilton recruits
– Better than 28-percent of all the Arizona recruits analyzed signed with a Power Five conference team other than a Pac-12 team
— Mike Stadlman (@MikesGraffix) January 26, 2016
Number of School’s Recruits vs. Team Performance
– In five years, Chandler High School has generated eleven Power Five signees, but only appeared in one championship game
– Saguaro, Centennial and Hamilton seem to get the most out of their talent
What the Numbers Mean
There’s no doubt that the cities of Chandler and Scottsdale appear to be the hot spots in the state of Arizona for Power Five conference programs looking for talent. In the city of Chandler, the two big high school programs have differing results in having their players stay within the Pac-12 conference. And while these aren’t large sample sizes, the results show a wide disparity.
It seems that ASU still has a ways to go in putting a fence around the state of Arizona. Looking at nine of the top ten producing high school programs in-state, ASU signed only four of the 44 recruits that ended up signing with a Power Five conference team (not including Chandler High School from the top ten). That’s signing less than one out of every ten of those recruits. The Devils have also been shut out in the city of Phoenix, which is the sixth largest city in the country in terms of population.
Roughly 70-percent of all the recruits signed with a Pac-12 team. However, only half the recruits from Scottsdale signed with a Pac-12 team. Additionally, two out of every three of the total recruits signed with a team outside of Arizona. Clearly there is still work to be done for both ASU and the U of A to retain their own Power Five-level talent.
It’s interesting that Chandler High has generated the most Power Five conference signees over the past five years, yet have not seen the continued success of the field as some of the other high school programs. That school is also very loyal to ASU and UofA, along with the other Pac-12 conference teams. Wonder if there is a correlation between results on the field and where a recruits sets his sights for playing at the next level.