Gary Doran

Weekly Stat-Pac: Defense Week 11


It’s All About the Score

– Stanford is still tops in scoring defense in allowing 16.1 points per game.
– Stanford, USC, Utah and ASU are the only four teams to give up less than 100 points in the first half.
– Stanford and Washington are the only two teams to give up less than 100 points in the second half.
– WSU has given up 199 points in the second half, which is an average of 20 points per half-per game.
– Cal, Colorado and WSU all average giving up 38 points or more per game.


How Did They Score

– Utah’s defense has only given up five rushing touchdowns in nine games.
– Stanford’s defense has given up the fewest touchdowns at 16, while ASU is next giving up only 23 touchdowns.
– Cal averages giving up 3.7 passing touchdowns per game.
– Oregon and Arizona are the only two teams that have not given up a non-defensive touchdown. WSU has given up eight.
– Oregon State’s defense has given up the most rushing touchdowns this year at 20.


Defense by the Yard

– Only two teams, UCLA and Arizona gave up fewer than 400 yards last week.
– Four teams, Stanford, OSU, ASU and Utah average giving up less than 400 yards per game.
– California’s defense gives up the most yardage at a 526 yards per game average.
– Oregon State has given up more than 500 yards in its last two games, while giving up no 500 yard games in the first seven.
– Utah also gave up its first 500 yard game of the season against Oregon last week.
– The 353 yards Arizona gave up against Colorado last week were the fewest for the Wildcats since the second week of the season.


First Defense

– Stanford has forced its opponent to run an average of 4.0 plays in order to gain a first down
– ASU has forced its opponents to run an average of 3.7 plays in order to gain a first down.
– Cal is last in the conference in giving up an average of 28 first downs per game.
– Oregon held Utah to the fewest first downs the Ducks have allowed so far this year at 17.
– Oregon State was the only team to give up more than 30 first downs last week.
– The nine conference teams averaged giving up 24.6 first downs per game last week.


Third Time’s a Charm 

– Oregon has allowed an average of 7.4 third down conversions per game.
– Oregon and Washington are the only two teams to allow opponents to convert on more than 40 percent of their third down chances.
– Utah only allowed Oregon to convert four third down tries out of 13 chances last week.
– USC averages giving up only five third down conversions per game so far this year.
– The Oregon, UCLA and Washington defenses see an average of 16 third down opportunities by their opponents per game.


TFLs – A Lost Cause

– In the last three games, ASU has registered 31 TFLs, the most in the conference.
– ASU and OSU were the only two teams to register double-digit TFLs last week.
– Utah leads the conference with a TFL once every 8.9 plays, with ASU next at one every 9.0 plays.
– Over the last three games, ASU has averaged a TFL once every 7.3 plays.
– Washington’s four TFLs last week against UCLA were the fewest the Huskies have registered since Week Five.
– Colorado and Cal have not registered more than seven TFLs in a game this season.


Sack It Up

– ASU registered the most sacks last week with seven against Notre Dame.
– The Sun Devils have gotten 15 sacks in the last three games.
– Cal has only registered two sacks in the last three games.
– Utah leads the conference with a sack once every 7.8 pass attempts.
– Washington is second with a sack once every 9.9 pass attempts.
– The past two games, Washington has only registered four sacks in facing 89 pass attempts.
– In the first eight games, Washington averaged a sack every 8.5 pass attempts. In the last two games, it’s a sack once every 22.3 pass attempts.
– All nine teams playing last week registered at least one sack.


Turnover Beethoven

– ASU got one-third of all the takeaways last week.
– Four of the nine teams playing last week did not cause a turnover in their games.
– Oregon leads the conference in getting a turnover once every 36 plays.
– Washington is second with a turnover once every 39 plays.
– ASU is third with a takeaway once every 41 plays.
– Oregon State has not had a turnover since Week Nine.
– Washington State has only caused three turnovers in the past five games.
– The four turnovers Oregon caused against Utah last week were the most the Ducks have generated this year.


Red Zoning Out

– Washington and USC are the only two teams keeping opponents’ red zone success rate below 50 percent.
– ASU is third best at keeping opponents’ red zone success rate low at 50 percent.
– Over 36 percent of opponent offensive drives make it to the Cal Bear’s red zone.
– Of the 30 touchdowns the Oregon defense has surrendered, 27 have come from their red zone, 90 percent.
– Of the 29 touchdowns Arizona has surrendered, 18 of them have come from their red zone, only 62 percent.
– Oregon State is allowing almost 70 percent of opponent trips into its red zone to score a touchdown.


Havoc Rate (the aggressive defense measurement)

– Five weeks ago, ASU was 10th in the conference in its Havoc Rate. It is now second.
– Four teams increased their Havoc Rate this past week. Five teams saw their rates decrease.
– Five out of the six teams in the North Division have seen their Havoc Rate decrease since we started tracking it in Week Six.
– Utah and Arizona have seen their Havoc Rates increase the most over their rates from the 2013 season.
– UCLA has seen its Havoc Rate decrease the most compared to its 2013 rate.


Havoc Rate developed by Bill Connelly at Football Outsiders

Here is a look at how the Havoc Rates for each of the South Division teams have changed over the past five weeks.


Next ASU Opponent: Oregon State

Here is a look at ASU’s next defensive opponent the Oregon State Beavers comparing how the team has done so far this year versus the results from all of 2013.

Points allowed per game……2014—30…….…..2013—31
Yards allowed per game…….2014—385….…….2013—437
Turnovers per game………….2014—1.5…………2013—2.2
Giving up red zone TDs…….2014—69%……….2013—60%
3rd down conversion rate….2014—31%……….2013—40%
Completions % allowed…….2014—63%……….2013—60%
Havoc Rate……………………..2014—19.4%…….2013—17.3%

Even though Oregon State’s offense doesn’t look like it did last year, the defense is somewhat similar. In fact, the defense is giving up 52 yards less per game this year compared to last year. This year’s Beaver defense appears to be more aggressive than last year’s team in that their Havoc Rate is higher so far this year. Another big area of improvement seems to be in limiting opponent success in converting third downs this year.  The one area that doesn’t seem to be as good as last year is in causing and getting turnovers.  That is down a bit this year.

Let us know what you think of our weekly Stat-Pac for the defenses in the conference, and also the Havoc Rate. Impacting the opponent’s offense and quarterback is a mainstay of a Todd Graham defense, and why we began tracking the Havoc Rate for ASU and the conference.

About Gary Doran

Gary Doran

Gary graduated from ASU many years ago. After careers working in banking, finance and the financial administration of academic research funding, he is now interested in utilizing his passion for numbers towards two things he thoroughly loves; Arizona State University and college football. He is looking forward to finding the “stories” buried within the numbers on a football stat sheet. He has gone to ASU football games all the way back to the days of Frank Kush and the WAC. He has been married to an amazing ASU graduate for almost forty years, and they currently live in Ventura, CA. Although this may disqualify him from talking football, he and his wife enjoy the practice of yoga and dancing the Argentine Tango. Ole!

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