Gary Doran

Weekly Stat-Pac: Defense Week 12


As with the offensive side of the Stat-Pac, the defensive side now has all new graphs. We are still looking at the same data, but in a different set of relationships. We think the new look will make the data more interesting and meaningful for our readers. We are also repositioning the graphs to be first and then the bullet points explaining the details.

New Graph: Score Allowed by Quarter


– Stanford has only allowed 16 points to be scored by their opponents in the third quarter.
– Oregon State has only allowed 20 points to be score by their opponents in the third quarter.
– ASU has only allowed 37 points to be score by their opponents in the first quarter, 14 of came last week.
– Over 40 percent of the points Washington gives up happens in the second quarter.
– Eight of the twelve conference teams give up the most points in the second quarter.
– ASU and Utah are the only two teams that give up the most points in the fourth quarter.

New Graph: Touchdowns Allowed (Run/Pass)


– Stanford’s defense has only given up 19 touchdowns in ten games
– Cal’s defense has allowed 50 touchdowns in ten games, 37 of those happened through the air.
– Utah has only allowed five touchdowns on the ground in ten games.
– Oregon State is the only conference team to give up more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns this year.
– Utah’s defense has allowed the second fewest touchdowns at 26, while ASU is third lowest allowing 27 touchdowns.

Total Yards Allowed (Run/Pass)


– Stanford and Utah were the only teams to give up fewer than 300 yards last week playing each other.
– Arizona was the only team to give up more than 500 yards last week.
– The ASU defense gave up more yards to Oregon State than any other defense, except Portland State in Week One.
– California is the only conference team to average giving up more than 500 yards per game.
– The 498 yards given up to Oregon State by ASU was the most by its defense since Week Six against USC.
– The conference averages giving up 152 yards on the ground and 264 yard through the air so far this year.
– The Stanford defense is first in rushing defense and first in pass defense.
– USC is second in rush defense and ASU is second in pass defense.
– Washington is third in rush defense, while Oregon State is third in pass defense.
– The Cal defense gives up almost 400 yards per game through the air.

New Graph: Avg. Yards Allowed- Run/Pass


– Stanford, Washington, Utah and Arizona all have held their opponents under 4.0 rushing yards per carry.
– Stanford hold opponents to only 5.3 yards per pass attempt.
– Four teams hold opponents to under 6.0 yards per pass attempt; Oregon State, USC, UCLA and Utah.
– Washington State averages giving up 8.5 yards for every pass attempt this year, the highest in the conference.

New Graph: 1st Downs Allowed and How They were Achieved


– The ASU defense has only given up 14 first downs by penalty, the lowest in the conference.
– The USC defense has given up the most first downs by penalty surrendering 34 so far this year.
– Last week saw the fewest first downs per team since Week Three
– One-third of all the first downs gained last week happened in the Cal-USC game, Thursday night.
– Utah and UCLA have allowed the most first downs on the ground so far this year, while Stanford has allowed the fewest.
– The Cal defense has given up 175 first downs through the air this year, that’s an average of 17.5 per game.
– The Stanford defense gives up the fewest first downs against both the run and the pass in the conference.

New Graph: Percentage of Third Down Conversions Allowed


– ASU held Oregon State to one third down conversion last week in twelve chances.
– Arizona allowed the Washington Huskies to convert almost 60 percent of its 22 third down opportunities last week.
– Oregon, Arizona and Cal are the only three teams allowing opponents to convert more than 40 percent of third down chances this year.
– The USC defense stops third down conversion attempts by its opponents, on average, better than two-out-of-three times.
– The Oregon defense averages giving up roughly 7.5 third down conversions per game this year.
– The Colorado defense has faced the fewest third down situations so far this year at just 142.

New Graph: TFLs per Opponent Plays


– Stanford registered twelve TFLs last week against Utah. It is the second time the Cardinal has registered that many in a game.
– ASU has racked up 38 TFLs in the last four weeks for an average of 9.5 per game.
– Stanford now leads the conference with a TFL once every 8.8 plays, with Utah next at one every 9.0 plays.
– In the last two weeks, Washington has gotten only nine TFLs, while in the two games before that the Huskies registered 21 TFLs.
– The Cal defense registered the most TFLs last week than in any other game so far this year.
– Colorado and Cal have not registered more than seven TFLs in a game this season.
– Utah leads the conference with 86 TFLs this year, with ASU second with 80 TFLs.

New Graph: Defensive Sacks per Pass Attempt


– Every defense registered a sack last week.
– The Cal defense has only sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times this year.
– Utah leads the conference with 47 sacks, which is more than three times the number generated by the Cal defense.
– The Arizona defense had its fewest sacks last week against Washington since Week Seven against USC.
– In Week Nine, Washington registered seven sacks against ASU, in three games since; the Huskies have only gotten six sacks.
– Utah is the only defense with a sack in fewer than ten opponent pass attempts.
– All the teams combined average a sack once every 14.4 pass attempts so far this year.

New Graph: Turnover – Fumbles/Interceptions


– The Washington State defense has not gotten an interception yet this year in conference play.
– The Stanford defense did not register a takeaway last week against Utah.
– The UCLA defense has recovered only three fumbles so far this year, two of them were against ASU in Week Five.
– Five of the conference teams have double-digit interceptions, but only three have double-digit fumble recoveries.
– Roughly 47 percent of the turnovers are fumble recoveries, while 53 percent are interceptions.
– Oregon State leads the conference with an interception once every 35.1 pass attempts.
– ASU is second with an interception once every 35.9 pass attempts.
– Washington State is last in the conference with an interception only once every 181.5 pass attempts.
– Only two out of the nine turnovers the Stanford defense has caused have been against conference foes.

Red Zone Defense: Same Graph


– Washington and ASU are the only two teams keeping opponents from scoring red zone touchdowns in less than half their chances.
– The Stanford defense only allows opponents into the Cardinal red zone roughly one in five drives.
– The California defense has allowed opponents into its red zone 52 times so far this year; most in the conference.
– Only ten percent of the touchdowns the Oregon defense has given up have come from beyond its own red zone.
– Arizona is the only conference team to give up more than 40 percent of the touchdowns from outside its own red zone.
– Utah has only allowed opponents into its red zone 32 times this year, which is lowest in the conference.

Havoc Rate (the aggressive defense metric)


– ASU is now third in the conference in its Havoc Rate
– Five teams increased their Havoc Rates this week, while three saw their rates decrease.
– Utah and Oregon have seen their Havoc Rates increase the most over their rates from the 2013 season.
– UCLA has seen its Havoc Rate decrease the most compared to its 2013 rate.
– Half the conference teams have better than a 20 percent Havoc rate this year, while only four had over 20 percent in 2013.

Havoc Rate developed by Bill Connelly at Football Outsiders

Next ASU Opponent: Washington State

Here is a look at ASU’s next defensive opponent the Washington State Cougars comparing how the team has done so far this year versus the results from all of 2013.

Points allowed per game……2014—38.0…….…..2013—32.5
Yards allowed per game.……2014—454…………2013—-458
Turnovers per game…….……2014—-0.7…………2013—-2.3
Giving up red zone TDs……..2014—57%………..2013—-57%
3rd down conversion rate….2014—38%……….2013—-38%
Completions % allowed…….2014—65%………..2013—-63%
Havoc Rate………………………2014—17.9%……..2013–16.0%
Sacks per game………………..2014—-2.7…………2013—-2.5

The two big differences between this year’s defense compared to last year is that this year’s squad is giving up almost a touchdown more per game than in 2013 and getting far fewer turnovers. Most all the other defensive categories are pretty much the same for both years, except maybe an improved Havoc Rate so far this year.

Let us know what you think of our weekly Stat-Pac for the defenses in the conference, and also the Havoc Rate. Impacting the opponent’s offense and quarterback is a mainstay of a Todd Graham defense, and why we began tracking the Havoc Rate for ASU and the conference.

About Gary Doran

Gary Doran

Gary graduated from ASU many years ago. After careers working in banking, finance and the financial administration of academic research funding, he is now interested in utilizing his passion for numbers towards two things he thoroughly loves; Arizona State University and college football. He is looking forward to finding the “stories” buried within the numbers on a football stat sheet. He has gone to ASU football games all the way back to the days of Frank Kush and the WAC. He has been married to an amazing ASU graduate for almost forty years, and they currently live in Ventura, CA. Although this may disqualify him from talking football, he and his wife enjoy the practice of yoga and dancing the Argentine Tango. Ole!

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